Cabo San Lucas Weather Guide: Desert Meets the Sea

Travel time: Year-round

Cabo San Lucas occupies a rare ecological niche known as a tropical desert climate. Situated at the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, it sits on the Tropic of Cancer where the arid sands of the Sonoran Desert meet the deep blue waters of both the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Cortez. This specific geography creates a year-round paradise defined by over 300 days of sunshine and sharp contrasts between land and sea.

Daily Climate Rhythms

In the desert, the lack of cloud cover and low humidity causes significant temperature swings between day and night.

  • Morning: The day typically begins with a crisp, dry coolness, especially in the winter months (December–March) when temperatures start in the low 60s°F (16°C).
  • Midday: As the sun climbs, the temperature rises rapidly, peaking between 12:00 PM and 4:30 PM. In the summer, the heat can feel intense, but the low humidity often makes it feel more manageable than tropical destinations like Cancun.
  • Evening: After 5:30 PM, the lack of moisture in the air allows heat to escape quickly. Within an hour of sunset, temperatures can drop by 10–15 degrees, bringing a refreshing breeze that locals call the "cool down."

Seasonal Trends

Winter (December – March)

This is the most popular season for a reason. Highs hover comfortably between 75°F and 80°F (24°C–27°C). The air is at its driest, with nearly 0% humidity, creating a "perfect spring" feel. This is also peak whale-watching season as Humpbacks and Gray whales migrate to the warmer lagoons nearby.

Spring (April – June)

Spring is the driest time of year. Rainfall is virtually non-existent. May and June are known as the transition months where the winds pick up, making it a favorite for sailors. Temperatures begin their steady climb toward the 90s°F (32°C).

Summer (July – September)

Summer brings the heat and the moisture. Humidity levels rise significantly by late August, and September is the wettest month of the year. While rain is still infrequent compared to other tropical zones, when it does fall—often due to late-summer tropical depressions—it arrives in heavy, dramatic late-afternoon downpours. This is the peak of the Pacific hurricane season.

Fall (October – November)

As the humid "monsoon" air recedes, October remains warm but progressively drier. By November, the air transforms back to its crisp, arid state, with temperatures returning to the manageable mid-80s°F (29°C), marking the start of the primary fishing tournament season.

Regional Microclimates

The distinct geography of "Land's End" creates localized weather variations that can surprise visitors:

  • The Pacific Side vs. The Sea of Cortez: The Pacific side of Cabo is consistently 5°F to 8°F cooler than the Sea of Cortez side. The cold California Current provides a steady, cooling breeze on the western beaches, while the Sea of Cortez acts like a warm bathtub, trapping heat.
  • San José del Cabo: Just 20 miles east, San José del Cabo often feels warmer and less windy than Cabo San Lucas because it is shielded from the direct Pacific winds by the Sierra de la Laguna mountain range.

Weather Phenomena: The "Chubasco"

While Cabo is a desert for 95% of the year, it is susceptible to the Chubasco—a violent, localized squall that can occur during the late summer. These storms are characterized by sudden, high-velocity winds and intense rain that can transform dry desert arroyos (washes) into rushing rivers within minutes. Locals have learned to respect these arroyos, which serve as natural drainage systems for the region.

Historical Context and Local Adaptation

Historically, the Cabo region was so dry that it remained largely unpopulated until modern desalination and deep-well technology arrived. Locals, or Cabeños, adapt to the climate through architecture—using thick-walled adobe and high ceilings to mitigate the desert heat—and the mid-afternoon siesta culture, where physical activity is minimized during the peak solar hours of 2:00 PM to 4:00 PM.

Water Temperatures

Unlike the air, the water temperature takes time to adjust. Even when the air is 85°F in May, the water may still feel brisk (72°F/22°C) due to the winter's lingering influence. The sea is at its most inviting in late August and September, when it reaches a balmy 84°F (29°C), perfect for hours of snorkeling and diving.