Exuma Weather Guide: Climate and Seasonal Trends

Travel time: Year-round

Exuma, an archipelago of 365 cays in the Bahamas, is defined by a tropical savanna climate (Köppen-Geiger classification Aw). Positioned along the Tropic of Cancer, the islands benefit from a nearly perpetual maritime influence that moderates temperatures, keeping them between 70°F (21°C) and 88°F (31°C) throughout the year.

Typical Weather Patterns and Daily Cycle

Weather in Exuma follows a predictable rhythm influenced by the surrounding shallow banks and the deeper Atlantic. Mornings typically begin with clear skies and a gentle easterly breeze. As the sun climbs, the shallow turquoise waters of the Exuma Banks heat up rapidly, often leading to the development of small, white cumulus clouds.

In the summer months, these clouds can grow into brief, intense afternoon thunderstorms. These "liquid sunshine" showers are usually localized and pass within 15 to 20 minutes, leaving the air refreshed and the skies blue once more. In winter, the cycle is more stable, characterized by long periods of uninterrupted sunshine and lower humidity.

Seasonal Trends

The Cool Season (December – March)

This is the peak travel period, marked by the most comfortable weather. Daytime highs range from 75°F to 79°F (24°C–26°C). The humidity is at its annual low, making the air feel crisp and pleasant. Water temperatures dip to their coolest, around 76°F (24°C), which locals consider brisk but visitors find ideal for snorkeling. This season is also the windiest; sustained northeasterly breezes (the "Trade Winds") are common, often gusting over 20 mph.

The Transition/Spring (April – May)

April is arguably the most temperate month, serving as a bridge between the breezy winter and the humid summer. Temperatures begin to climb into the low 80s, and the strong winter winds start to subside. May brings the first significant increase in rainfall, often arriving in the form of early-season tropical waves.

The Hot & Wet Season (June – October)

Summer in Exuma is characterized by "oppressive" humidity and high heat. Temperatures consistently peak at 88°F (31°C) or higher, but the high moisture content makes it feel significantly hotter—the "RealFeel" often exceeds 100°F (38°C). This is also the primary rainy season, with October typically being the wettest month. However, days are long, and the sea becomes like glass—extremely calm and warm (up to 85°F/29°C)—making it the best time for boating to the more remote cays.

The Autumn Transition (November)

As the hurricane season winds down, November sees a sharp drop in humidity and the return of the cooling northeasterly winds. It remains warm enough for swimming, with average highs around 79°F (26°C).

Hurricane Context and Historical Weather

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. Historically, Exuma is less frequently hit by major hurricanes than the northern islands (like Grand Bahama or Abaco), but it remains within the active track. Notable storms like Hurricane Irene (2011) and Hurricane Sandy (2012) have passed over the chain. Locals are highly attuned to the sea’s behavior during this time; a sudden swell or a shift in the wind direction often signals distant tropical activity long before it appears on radar.

Microclimates and Regional Variations

While the Exuma chain is narrow, there are subtle variations between the "Big Island" (Great Exuma) and the smaller northern cays. The northern cays, such as Staniel Cay, are more exposed to the open Atlantic and often experience slightly stronger winds and higher salt spray than the more sheltered leeward side of Great Exuma. The interior of Great Exuma can feel several degrees warmer and more humid than the coast because it lacks the immediate cooling effect of the onshore breezes.

The Local Experience

Locals in Exuma live by the wind and the tide. "Wind from the east, fish bite least; wind from the west, fish bite best" is a common refrain among local fishermen. In the winter, residents may wear light jackets in the evenings when the "Northers" (cold fronts from the mainland U.S.) push through, dropping temperatures into the 60s. During the summer heat, daily life slows down in the afternoon; the "sea breeze" is the primary natural air conditioner, and traditional Bahamian architecture often features high ceilings and deep porches to capture every available movement of air.